Cybertruck pre-orders numbers analysis

Cybertruck pre-orders numbers analysis

[Last updated: Nov 24th, 2019] Elon Musk has shared on Twitter the updated number of Cybertruck pre-orders. According to Tesla’s CEO, they have received 200,000 reservations just three days after the event. We have updated this blog post and the tables below with the latest numbers.

Only 36 hours after Tela’s Cybertruck unveiling event, Elon Musk has shared on Twitter that they’ve received 146,000 pre-orders. Not bad for an ‘ugly’ truck. 😜

Our take is that the specs and the price point are so good that, if what you’re looking for is a functional and versatile truck, it’s going to be difficult to beat Tesla’s Cybertruck. Also, the Cybertruck is certainly polarizing, but it seems to quickly grow on people.

The pre-order numbers speak for themselves. You could argue that the fact that the deposit is $100 and refundable makes it easier to pre-order than the Model 3 or the Model Y ($1,000 and $2,500 deposit respectively), but it’s also still $20 million. We’ve run some numbers and even a very conservative scenario would represent approximately half of Tesla’s revenue in Q3-2019. In an aggressive scenario, we’d be talking about a 50% increase compared to Q3-2019 revenue.

Check out the estimated revenue based on the current number of pre-orders of the different Cybertruck configurations:

Note that the tables below have been updated to 200,000 reservations, but we’ve kept the percentages shared at 146,000 reservations since we don’t have the new ones.

% # Reservations Price per unit Total $
Single Motor 17% 34,000.00 $39,900 $1,356,600,000
Dual Motor 41% 82,000.00 $49,900 $4,091,800,000
Tri Motor 42% 84,000.00 $69,900 $5,871,600,000
Total 100% 200,000.00 n/a $11,320,000,000

Even if only 30% of the pre-orders go through that would bring almost $3,400 million in revenue.

% Reservations to sales Units sold Revenue
80% 160,000 $9,056,000,000
50% 100,000 $5,660,000,000
30% 60,000 $3,396,000,000

These numbers are what Tesla needs to start production and most likely what they’ll be able to produce in the first year, based on the Model 3 production numbers during its first year.

If we’ve learned something from the Model 3 rollout is that seeing them in the streets only got Tesla to sell more, so we think the Cybertruck’s fate is probably going to be pretty similar.

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